ARIZONA RANKS 5TH IN NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION

LIVING IN PHOENIX, ARIZONA

 

Here’s How Arizona Ranks For Domestic Migration In 2023

 

Arizona ranked 5^th in net domestic migration, gaining 62,533 more residents from other states than it lost.

In 2023, 256,203 individuals moved into Arizona from another state or the District of Columbia, making it the 8th highest destination for domestic migrants, according to the 1-year 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates. This portion represents 3.4% of the 7,550,415 individuals who domestically migrated to a different state across the U.S. in 2022, highlighting Arizona’s appeal as a destination hub, driven by job opportunities, affordable housing, and a favorable climate for retirees and young professionals.

On a national level, Florida ranked first in domestic in-migration in 2023, welcoming 636,933 new residents, representing 8.4% of the total. Texas closely followed with 611,942 in-migrants (8.1%), and California ranked third with 422,075 (5.6%). On the other end of the spectrum, Wyoming ranked last, attracting 22,957 in-migrants, or 0.3% of the total. Vermont and South Dakota followed closely with 26,743 (0.4%) and 30,055 (0.4%). Exhibit 1 illustrates U.S. states and their 2023 levels of domestic in-migration; note the high levels of domestic migration to southern and coastal states, as well as areas with large metros.

Exhibit 1: Annual Domestic In-Migration by Destination State, Persons 1+, 2023 1-Year ACS

Within Arizona, most new residents settled in the Phoenix MSA, with 166,425 of the 256,203 domestic in-migrants choosing the area, while Tucson saw a sizeable share, with 42,141 new residents. At the same time, the Phoenix MSA also sent the most migrants to other states, accounting for 134,842 of the total 193,670 out-migrants, netting 31,583, followed by the Tucson MSA, or Pima County, which contributed 25,976 residents to other states, netting 16,165. Exhibit 2 shows Arizona counties and their respective different state net flows, broken down into in-migration and out-migration levels. Observe the tendency for in-migrants to settle in more densely populated areas.

Exhibit 2: Arizona In-Migration, Out-Migration, and Net Domestic Migration by County, 2023 1-Year ACS, Persons 1+

Arizona also ranked 14th for domestic outmigration, with 193,670 individuals leaving for another state, or 2.6% of the total domestic migrant population. California had the most outmigrants with 690,127 (9.1%), followed by Florida, with 510,925 (6.8%), and New York, with 481,544 (6.4%), while Vermont had the fewest, with 19,151 (0.3%), followed by North Dakota, with 20,814 (0.3%), and Wyoming, with 22,875 (0.3%). Exhibit 3 indicates levels of domestic out-migration by state of origin; interestingly, many states with large inflows, such as Florida and Texas, also experience considerable outflows.

Exhibit 3: Annual Domestic Out-Migration by Origin State, Persons 1+, 2023 1-Year ACS

Arizona ranked 7th in the nation for domestic churn in 2023, with 1.32 individuals moving into the state for every individual moving out, suggesting that Arizona remains a desirable destination for domestic movers. Despite its relatively small flows, North Dakota led the country with a churn ratio of 1.65, followed by South Carolina at 1.51 and North Carolina at 1.46. In contrast, California experienced the highest outflow relative to inflow, with a ratio of 0.61, followed closely by New York at 0.63 and Illinois at 0.69, reflecting a net population loss from domestic migration. Exhibit 4 highlights the domestic migration churn ratio, which compares state inflows and outflows. Arizona stands out as having both high levels of migration and a strong churn ratio.

Exhibit 4: Annual Domestic Churn Ratio (Inflow/ Outflow), Persons 1+, 2023 1-Year ACS

In terms of international migration, Arizona attracted 58,640 international migrants, ranking 12th overall in the U.S. with 2.4% of the 2,424,574 international migrants. California led the nation with 315,732 international newcomers, followed by Florida with 303,868 and Texas with 272,711. In contrast, Vermont, South Dakota, and Wyoming saw the fewest international arrivals, with 2,152, 2,172, and 2,353 migrants, respectively. Exhibit 5 indicates international in-migration levels for 2023. Notably, Arizona attracted more residents from abroad than its similarly situated neighbors of New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Utah.

Exhibit 5: U.S. In-Migration From Abroad by Destination State, 2023 ACS 1-Year, Persons 1+